C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 003092
SIPDIS
AF/RSA FOR KATHLEEN MOODY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAGR, OTRA, EAID, ET, SO
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER MELES DISCUSSES AGRICULTURE
DEVELOPMENT, CSO LAW, SOMALIA WITH STAFFDEL PHELAN
Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
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1. (C) Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Professional
Staff Member (PSM) Michael V. Phelan met with Ethiopian Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi on November 6 to discuss potential
United States support for agricultural development to enhance
food security in countries and regions receiving a
significant amount of food assistance from the United States.
Phelan also raised United States concerns regarding
Ethiopia's proposed civil society (CSO) law, recent
crackdowns on members of mainstream opposition parties and
Ethiopia's progress in Somalia. The Prime Minister
enthusiastically welcomed potential support for agricultural
and rural development and described Ethiopia's efforts to
improve its agricultural productivity and the challenges it
faces, including lack of seed variety, fertilizer and capable
extension workers. Meles affirmed that Ethiopia wants to
engage constructively with the United States and become a
fully functioning democratic system, but said proposed U.S.
Congressional legislation toward that end might be
"unhelpful." Turning to Somalia, the Prime Minister said
Ethiopia can live with a Somalia with terrorists, but not a
Somalia run by terrorists, and said the economic and social
costs of the intervention are putting pressure on the
Ethiopian government to withdraw. "If we leave and the
terrorists recover (territory)," Meles said, "we will have to
intervene again." Meles said progress on peace and
reconciliation, particularly between the Somali Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) and the Alliance for the
Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), had been mixed, and added
that the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will want
to withdraw before Ethiopia does. Meles thanked the PSM for
United States support for a follow-on United Nations mission
in Somalia, but acknowledged the challenges involved because
"nobody wants to send troops where there is little chance of
success." End Summary.
2. (C) Senate Foreign Relations Committee PSM Phelan, the
Ambassador and Deputy PolCouns (notetaker) met with Prime
Minister Meles on November 6 to discuss potential United
States support for agricultural development to enhance food
security in countries and regions receiving a significant
amount of food assistance from the United States. Phelan
also raised United States concerns regarding Ethiopia's
proposed civil society law, recent crackdowns on members of
mainstream opposition parties and Ethiopia's progress in
Somalia.
Enthusiastic About Agricultural and Rural Development...
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3. (SBU) Noting his trip is part of a twelve country study,
Phelan informed Meles that the United States Congress is
preparing legislation to address long-term food security
challenges worldwide through greater support for agricultural
and rural development. The Prime Minister said that
agricultural and rural development is the centerpiece of
Ethiopia's development strategy and he enthusiastically
welcomed a "roots and branch" approach to the agriculture
sector, which, he added, has long been neglected by
Ethiopia's international development partners. Meles was
animated and displayed a notable command of the minutiae of
his government's policy and programmatic efforts to transform
the agricultural sector.
...Cognizant of Challenges
--------------------------
4. (C) Meles said that Ethiopia is essentially "two
countries" from an agricultural standpoint: highlands, where
progress is being made, and pastoral lands, where "there are
many structural problems we have not addressed," including
land degradation and drought mitigation. In the highlands,
the Ethiopian government (GoE) is focused on "scaling up"
programs designed to boost farmers' yields which, although
rising over the past four to five years, are quite low
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compared with those of, i.e., Kenya. Meles said the GoE is
in the second year of its "scaling up program," and review of
the first year revealed challenges with "supportive
capacity," which he described as access to improved seed
varieties, access to affordable fertilizer, and a dearth of
capable extension workers. Ethiopia has seed multiplication
programs, but as yet only a fraction of rural households are
involved, Meles said. The country is not opposed to the use
of genetically modified seeds, but cost, property rights and
"export market concerns" could be obstacles to their use.
Meles added that Ethiopia has considered, rejected and is
reconsidering constructing a fertilizer plant, based on its
perception of world commodity prices and trade, noting that
the GoE would "welcome private sector investment, either
fully private or as a joint venture in collaboration with a
state owned enterprise." Ethiopia's ability to purchase
fertilizer on world markets this year has been hampered by
the country's foreign exchange crisis, Meles noted.
5. (C) Meles said Ethiopia's agricultural productivity has
increased ten percent per year over the past five years, but
noted that subsistence farmers have also been slow to adopt
new agricultural techniques due to perceived costs. Ethiopia
is attempting to use successful farms as models for others,
noting that the government had found one farm in the
highlands that, if its "best practices" are replicated
widely, could "triple the yields in this country." The
process of transforming the agricultural sector, Meles said,
involves "social transformation, it is slow, and there are no
short cuts - but we are making some progress." Meles added
that Ethiopia is attempting to create a "transparent and
efficient" agricultural market, which includes a newly
introduced commodities exchange. Meles lamented that USAID
projects "are not scalable" and urged that USAID look to its
own past best practices in Taiwan to seek how best to support
agricultural transformation. USAID can assist Ethiopia with
research and training of extension workers, but should also
"shift from pilots to cover what works," Meles said.
6. (C) Turning to agricultural exports, Meles said flower
exports have been "very successful and very profitable," but
noted that the government "helped with credit and offered the
land to companies for virtually free." Labor is also cheap,
Meles said, although he cautioned that flowers do not have
unlimited markets and Ethiopia is actively seeking new export
destinations. Peas may be a new high-end export product,
Meles said, because they are "scalable." Ethiopia is trying
to attract investors for farm products in "unused arable
land" in the western lowlands, but so far, only Saudi
companies have expressed interest and no projects have moved
forward. Meles was clear to distinguish "unused arable land"
from commons set aside for pastoralists, adding that "we have
not had any meaningful success in transforming pastoralists'
livelihoods, although pilot projects for resettlement have
been positive. We need to invest much more in the
development of water resources and irrigation in the
lowlands."
Phelan Raises Democracy and Governance
--------------------------------------
7. (C) PSM Phelan underscored the United States' commitment
to democracy and good governance in Ethiopia, even as the
United States maintains its close cooperation with Ethiopia
on security matters. Phelan raised the recent proposed
Ethiopian civil society law and detentions of members of the
mainstream political party Oromo Federal Democratic Movement
(OFDM) as sources of concern (septel). Meles responded that
the OFDM deputy and others have been arrested as "very active
members of the (banned) Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)." Some
OFDM parliamentarians are OLF members and have been to
Eritrea to seek funding for OLF operations, Meles contended,
adding that the detained OFDM deputy had fingered members of
his own organization as OLF. Insisting that the Ethiopian
government had "thoroughly investigated" each person
arrested, Meles argued the OFDM is simply an OLF front,
noting that those arrested are "not the first to go to
Eritrea - this is just the tip of the iceberg."
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8. (C) Turning to democracy and governance, Meles said "we
want to engage constructively with the United States and our
intention is to move toward a fully functioning democratic
system. Any support or engagement we get is welcome and
valuable." Meles acknowledged "we are an emerging democracy
with imperfections that we constantly try to identify and
correct," but, citing legislation proposed variously by
Representative Payne and Senator Feingold, noted that
Congressional attempts to address Ethiopia's democracy and
governance challenges are "unhelpful, based on inadequate
information on what happens in Ethiopia, offer likely flawed
prescriptions, and are based on flawed philosophy." Meles
said Ethiopia can only become democratic through its own
will, while, if "every Congressman prescribes a solution
without understanding the complexities of the country, the
good that can be done will be constrained." For example,
Meles said, "if the Payne legislation had passed, we would
have had to reject it. There would have been consequences
for USAID. We don't want to have that, but we won't accept
help at any cost. For me it is philosophically unacceptable
to tell us how to organize our national elections or make a
national electoral board when every U.S. state holds its
elections differently. You can't force us to pass something
not even done in the United States. You have to give
countries the benefit of the doubt." Softening his tone a
bit, Meles added, "We need USAID assistance, but we are
unlikely to seek it at our own expense. The type of
legislation pending in the U.S. Congress just will put a
wedge in what we can do. We want continuity and the best
bilateral relations with the United States, but if the choice
is that such people feel they need to pass legislation and
conditions, we won't accept it and we'll try to do something
by other means."
Somalia: Meles Sees Mixed Progress
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9. (C) Turning to Somalia, Meles said Somalia is a "mixed
picture, with some progress." Specifically, Meles said "the
ARS is beginning to behave in a manner that could be
constructive." Referring to ARS leader Sheikh Sherif, the
Prime Minister noted that "some (ARS) members have split away
(from extremists) and engaged the TFG. We have been in touch
with them. Sherif has recently been close to the border
(between Ethiopia and Somalia), with our green light, to see
how he interacts with the local population. The reports back
to us have been encouraging." Meles cautioned that ARS
represents only a significant part of disaffected clans, not
all them," but added that "if ARS is brought on board,
security in Mogadishu, and north of Mogadishu, could improve
significantly." Meles called the TFG "a difficult entity;
they are still at each others, throats." He said that
implementing the recommendations from the late-October
Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) summit is
"bound to be challenging." AMISOM is still constrained by
circumstances, Meles said, emphasizing that "the United
Nations has still not dealt with re-hatting, and terrorists
still have adequate clan cover and control over a significant
part of Somalia."
Ethiopia Under Pressure To Withdraw
-----------------------------------
10. (C) Meles expressed frustration with Ethiopia,s
quandary, noting that the TFG is "using our presence to
attempt to impose itself on some (constituencies), while the
opposition (in Somalia) uses us to mobilize nationalist
sentiment against the TFG. We simply want to disrupt
terrorists and withdraw. Meles noted that the Ethiopian
government is under "significant domestic pressure to
withdraw from Somalia," citing the financial burden and the
cost in lives of Ethiopian soldiers. Meles said "if we see
light at the end of the tunnel, we will make our departure as
vacuum free as possible. (Unfortunately), its hard to see
the light unless the IGAD recommendations are implemented.
We may have to withdraw despite the impact on AMISOM" and we
have no illusions (about the adverse consequences). The
Ugandans deployed to Somalia on the promise that we would
assist them if they were threatened. It has always been part
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of the deal that they will withdraw before us so that we can
provide them with cover. (So) AMISOM will withdraw before us
unless the security situation improves. If we (and AMISOM)
withdraw, the TFG will cease to exist. All we can hope for
is to limit the damage."
11. (C) "Somalia," Meles said, "may have terrorists for some
time. (The recent bombings in Somaliland) demonstrate the
terrorists, outreach and the difficulty of the environment,
not a failure of the Somaliland security forces. Terrorists
will be part of the landscape for some time, no matter what
happens in Mogadishu." Meles noted that "Somalia will be for
some years a challenging environment for Ethiopia, Kenya, and
(Somali allies), as well as for the international community,
due to the threat from pirates and terrorists." Meles added
that "We can live with a Somalia that has terrorists, but not
a Somalia run by terrorists. If we leave and the terrorists
recover (territory), we will have to intervene again."
12. (C) Referring to a potential United Nations peacekeeping
operation for Somalia, Meles said that, based on his
consultations with Secretary Rice and Assistant Secretary
Frazer on September 27, "the Secretary and Assistant
Secretary have a full understanding of, and support for, a UN
re-hatting of AMISOM in Somalia. We have no reason to
complain about the U.S. position. We see challenges within
the UN because nobody wants to send troops where there is
little chance of success." "Uganda," Meles repeated, "can
only stay if security improves and there is a follow-on UN
mission. I hope the UN will be more forthcoming."
13. (U) PSM Phelan did not have the opportunity to clear this
cable before departing Ethiopia.
YAMAMOTO