C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000857
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, PK, RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA CONCERNED POLITICS UNDERCUTS PAKISTANI
TERRORISM FIGHT; ASSISTANCE UNLIKELY
REF: STATE 29860
Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).
1. (C) Summary: Russia is concerned that Pakistan's new
coalition government will fail to aggressively pursue Islamic
extremists. MFA observers lament the diminished influence of
Musharraf, Russia's preferred Pakistani leader, and hope that
he could make a comeback if a new government comes to power.
While the GOR continues to back U.S. support for Pakistan and
its fight against terrorism, Russian concern over ties with
India will keep the GOR from providing any kind of assistance
or aid (reftel), or making substantive changes in its
current, low-level relationship with Pakistan. End summary.
Russia Unlikely to Aid Pakistan
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2. (C) In response to reftel request, according to the MFA,
Russia does not provide Pakistan security or development
assistance, and counter-terrorism cooperation is limited to
annual meetings that consist of little more than an exchange
of ideas. The GOR is unlikely to begin providing assistance
in light of recent parliamentary elections and the formation
of a civilian-led government for fear of impairing relations
with India.
GOR Questions New Government's Anti-Extremist Credentials
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3. (C) MFA Pakistan Desk Chief Andrey Starkov told us that
the GOR was concerned that the makeup of Pakistan's new
coalition government would result in weakened resolve to
fight Islamic extremists. MFA observers were disappointed
that the coalition headed by Prime Minister Gillani did not
include Musharraf's parliamentary allies. The MFA told us
Russia was concerned by the inclusion of the Pakistan Muslim
League (PML-N), since it believed its leader, Nawaz Sharif,
maintained ties to Islamic extremists. It hoped Sharif's
influence would be minimized and that "positive forces" in
the government would prevail. Starkov expressed concern over
reports that the Gillani government would pursue a more
moderate course in dealing with Islamic extremists, stressing
that "action, not dialogue" was necessary.
4. (C) Starkov thought it unfortunate that Pakistan's new
political landscape had weakened Musharraf. He reiterated
that the GOR preferred a strongman as the best means to
control the nation's nuclear arsenal, which remained Russia's
top priority in Pakistan. Starkov noted that Musharraf had
four years in his presidential term, positing that he could
regain influence if a new coalition government came to power
that included his parliamentary allies.
Pakistan Should Welcome U.S. Role
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5. (C) Starkov expressed irritation with Pakistan officials
who reportedly criticized the recent visit of a high-level
U.S. delegation to Islamabad at the same time that the new
government was sworn in as evidence of American "meddling" in
Pakistani affairs. He argued that Pakistan should recognize
the visit as a demonstration of their country's importance to
the U.S. and be "grateful" for U.S. attention and support.
Starkov reiterated that despite Russian interest in
Pakistan's political stability, the GOR could not become more
involved in the situation owing to the importance it placed
on maintaining ties with India. The U.S., one the other
hand, was in a "unique position" that allowed it to play a
key role in Pakistan at the same time it significantly
improved ties with India.
BURNS