C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000218
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV, CA
SUBJECT: LIBERAL WARINESS OF A SPRING ELECTION
REF: A. OTTAWA 216
B. OTTAWA 211
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) According to Liberal Party National Campaign
Co-chair Senator David P. Smith, spring 2008 likely is not
the ideal time to face elections, at least from the Liberal
perspective. In a meeting with PolMinCouns on February 12,
he noted a general lack of public interest in an election so
far, and said that even the Liberal Party rank-and-file
workers were not "chomping at the bit" to bring down the
government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper -- just yet. He
said that the public was still "getting to know" PM Harper,
and claimed that the longer and better the voters knew him,
the less likely they would be to support the Conservative
Party. He admitted, however, that Liberal leader Stephane
Dion had public perception problems of his own. (Note:
Smith had supported Deputy Leader Michael Ignatieff in the
divisive December 2006 leadership race. End note) He said
that the Liberal Party would nonetheless be ready if
necessary to "get the election over with," but commented that
there was no looming large issue that would necessarily force
the Liberals to vote against the government. He predicted
eventual compromise on the Afghan mission vote (septel),
while noting that the Liberals still needed to see the
government's budget proposal before taking a stance on those
votes. He emphasized that the budget was not usually the
sort of issue to provoke an election, nor something the
voters followed in great detail, although the broader
question of an economic slowdown might be. In that case, he
added, the Liberals were better off to wait until the
economic situation possibly deteriorated further.
2. (C) Smith acknowledged that, should an election take
place any time soon, neither the Conservatives nor the
Liberals could expect to form a majority government.
However, he insisted that the Liberals could possibly end up
forming a minority government instead of the Conservatives,
although he indicated that this was not the more likely
outcome.
3. (C) Smith added that Canadian voters were fascinated
with and well informed about the ongoing U.S. Presidential
campaign, which made Canadian politics at this time seem
rather less interesting in contrast.
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada
WILKINS