C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000067
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2020
TAGS: PREL, SU, EG
SUBJECT: ARAB LEAGUE PLANS FOR SUDAN
REF: A. 09 CAIRO 1705
B. 09 CAIRO 1616
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs
Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Key Points:
-- Zeid Al Sabban, African Affairs Advisor to Arab League
(AL) SYG Amr Moussa said the AL wants to be part of a
"unified" approach with the USG to address Sudan issues.
-- The AL will hold an Arab Investment conference in Khartoum
and Juba on February 23-24 to encourage investment in
southern Sudan. It will also hold its February council
meeting in Darfur to show all 22 permanent representatives
the three villages and three medical centers built by the
League.
-- Al Sabban believes the division of opposition parties in
Sudan will lead to a NCP victory in April elections and
eventually the secession of the south because the SPLM only
wants a united Sudan if there is "leadership change."
-- The AL wants to be more involved in the Doha peace
process. Al Sabban believes that the AL's experience in
Abuja and its ability to serve as a point of common ground
for all Arabs will allow it to provide value to the process.
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Support for a "Unified" Approach on Sudan
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2. (C) Arab League Advisor on African Affairs Zeid Al Sabban
told us on January 4 that the Arab League (AL) supports
developing a "unified" approach on Sudan, which would involve
the U.S., Norway, regional countries, and regional
organizations like the AL, African Union (AU) and the
InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Al Sabban
stated that the AL was anxious to work with the USG because
it "shares more common ground than ever before with the U.S.,
especially on the Sudan issue."
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Arab Investment Conference
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3. (C) Al Sabban said the AL plans to hold an Arab investment
conference in Khartoum and Juba on February 23-24 to
encourage investment in the private and public sectors in
southern Sudan (reftel A). He said the conference will bring
bankers and business leaders from across the Arab World to
Juba. Al Sabban said the AL message is "Juba is a great
place to invest," but he told Government of South Sudan
(GoSS) officials that it was their responsibility to convince
Arab investors southern Sudan is the best place for their
money. He stated that the conference will need the support
of both SPLM and NCP officials to succeed. Al Sabban said
his chief concern is the "lack of transparency" in southern
Sudan. He met with Russian and Chinese investors during a
December trip to Juba. The investors told him that they had
made "facilitation payments" to help initiate investment
projects. However, GoSS officials denied knowledge of the
investments, according to Al Sabban.
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Recent Agreements and The Future of Sudan
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4. (C) Al Sabban said the recent agreements between the SPLM
and NCP on the southern referendum, Abyei referendum and
public consultations were "good" because "everyone thinks
they won." He believes the SPLM will now be a force for
stability during the April 2010 elections because it "wants
to preserve the referendum." Al Sabban said Sudanese
President Omar Al Bashir will win the presidential election
because the opposition groups are divided. He pointed to the
Sudanese Popular Congress Party's nomination of Abdallah
Dynaq Niyal as its presidential candidate as proof of the
disintegration of the "Juba Alliance." He said this division
would probably lead to the separation of Sudan because the
SPLM only wants a united Sudan if there is "leadership
change."
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AL Council to Meet in Darfur; See Assistance
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5. (C) Al Sabban told us that the AL council plans to hold
its February meeting in Darfur. He noted that this will be
the first AL meeting ever held in Darfur. According to Al
Sabban, the 22 permanent representatives will have an
opportunity to witness the opening of three villages and
three medical centers built by the League in Darfur and show
the Darfuri population the AL's commitment to assisting in
the recovery and development of the region (reftel B).
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Desire to Be More Involved in Doha Process
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6. (C) Al Sabban told us that the AL wants to be more
involved in Doha peace process mediation efforts because it
has a track record of success with the Darfuris. As an
example, he cited AL and AU cooperation in helping facilitate
the Abuja Agreement. He said the League would also represent
the entire Arab World, even those countries like Egypt that
do not feel represented by Qatar. Al Sabban stated Qatar has
"played a perfect role" in the peace process, but the AL can
add to its role through its experience and acting as a point
of common ground. He expressed concern that the divide
between UN/AU Mediator Bassole and Thabo Mbeki was
problematic and he encouraged the USG to support Bassole, but
persuade him to adopt some of Mbeki's recommendations.
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Assessment of Current Efforts
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7. (C) Al Sabban praised the efforts of the USG, France,
Sudanese Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salaheddin and Chad FM
Moussa Faki in helping to resolve the Sudan-Chad issues. He
hoped these efforts would encourage JEM to join the peace
process and accept the Abuja Accord, which he described as
the "Zaghawa deal." Al Sabban said "Abdel Wahid Al Nur is
not Nelson Mandela" and he believes the international
community should stop "courting him." He encouraged the U.S.
to engage with the "Fur elders" and create a group, not
including Abdel Shafie, to represent the Fur in Doha where
they can negotiate a deal with the Government of Sudan.
According to AL Sabban, UNAMID was effective in engaging with
civil society, but was mismanaging Darfur-Darfur dialogue
efforts because it was not listening to the Darfuris.
SCOBEY