C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000018
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2020
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, HO
SUBJECT: PDAS KELLY DISCUSSES MICHELETTI DEPARTURE WITH
SOCIETY AND BUSINESS LEADERS
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 0013
Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b/d)
1. (C) Summary: At a January 5 dinner with society leaders
and a January 6 meeting with the business community, WHA PDAS
Craig Kelly emphasized the importance of the resignation of
de facto leader Micheletti in creating a climate that would
allow quick reengagement with the international community
following the inauguration of President-elect Porfirio "Pepe"
Lobo. Participants in the dinner said that Hondurans are
deeply divided on the correct way forward and that any
discussion on Micheletti's resignation should be framed in
terms of creating a positive environment for the future.
General Romeo Vasquez, who heads the military, said that the
atmosphere of fear among people who believe they may be
jailed in connection with the coup is preventing forward
movement. Business community leaders expressed support for
Micheletti's resignation as the best path toward normalizing
foreign relations, but were uncertain whether he would agree
to step down. They expressed concern that ongoing
negotiations on the minimum wage could lead to violence and
political instability. End summary.
Dinner with Society Leaders
---------------------------
2. (C) Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State (PDAS)
for Western Hemisphere Affairs (WHA) Craig Kelly met Honduran
society leaders at a dinner hosted by the Ambassador on
January 5. The guests were: former President of Honduras
Carlos Flores, de facto regime negotiators at the Guaymuras
Dialogue that led to the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord Arturo
Corrales and Vilma Morales, Chief of the Defense General
Staff General Romeo Orlando Vasquez, former Coordinator for
the National Anti-Corruption Council Juan Ferrera, member of
Congress and former Minister of Defense Edmundo Orellana, and
former presidential candidate of the Liberal Party Elvin
Santos. PDAS Kelly said that the U.S. has taken a principled
yet pragmatic approach on Honduras and has steadfastly called
for the restoration of the democratic and constitutional
order while reacting to the changing reality on the ground.
PDAS Kelly stated that the U.S. position on the November 29
general election was based on the belief that it was the best
way to move forward. PDAS Kelly told the Ambassador's dinner
guests that the U.S. now wants to achieve implementation of
the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord, including formation of a
unity government and establishment of a truth commission.
PDAS Kelly explained that the renewal of attention by the
international community on Honduras during the January 27
inauguration of the president elected on November 29 presents
an opportunity that Honduras should seize to achieve
re-engagement by the international community. The Ambassador
added that if there are no changes between now and
inauguration day, the situation will become more complicated.
3. (C) PDAS Kelly told the Ambassador's dinner guests that
during his January 6 meeting with de facto regime leader
Roberto Micheletti, he would suggest that Micheletti
relinquish power in order to facilitate normalization of
relations between Honduras and the international community.
PDAS Kelly clarified that Micheletti needed to step down on a
date allowing sufficient time for countries to be able to
decide to send delegations to the inauguration. PDAS Kelly
noted that the U.S. does not have the intent of punishing
anyone. He noted that the U.S. needs to show that it remains
committed to the principle that there must be restoration of
the constitutional and democratic order and that the best way
to demonstrate this would be for Micheletti to step down.
The Ambassador said that those who tell Micheletti to
relinquish power are Micheletti's true friends. He added
that part of the solution to the Honduran crisis is for
Micheletti to have a dignified exit.
4. (C) Former President Flores stated that the U.S. improved
the Honduran situation by supporting the elections, thereby
legitimizing the process. He said that many in Honduras
don't understand the importance of Honduras recovering the
confidence of the international community. Flores noted that
some of his fellow dinner guests had the power to make
Micheletti and his supporters understand this. Corrales
argued that the question of whether Micheletti should step
aside should not be posed since Hondurans are divided on that
issue. He said it would be better not to personalize the
issue and present it in terms of what needs to be done to
complete the electoral process. Morales agreed, saying the
message should be framed in terms of the country's goals
after January 27. Orellana opined that Micheletti cannot be
portrayed as a loser and that a dignified exit for him needs
to be identified. He also said the focus of conversations on
this issue should be the good of Honduras. Santos said
president-elect Lobo is the one who needs to deliver the
message to Micheletti and his allies that he needs to leave.
Ferrera said he believed it was not fair to ask Micheletti to
step down because many Hondurans believe Micheletti took the
reins of government to defend democracy. General Vasquez
said people are frightened by statements that those who
supported the coup will be jailed or killed or excluded from
political life and that frightened people don't move forward.
Breakfast with Business Community
---------------------------------
5. (C) The Ambassador hosted a breakfast for PDAS Kelly and
Honduran business leaders on January 6. Participants
included Amcham chair Juan Moya; Amilcar Bulnes, President of
the Honduran Private Enterprise Council (COHEP); COHEP
advisor Norman Garcia; COHEP member Abraham Bennaton; Camilo
Atala, President of the Honduran branch of the Latin American
Enterprise Council (CEAL); Roque Rivera, president of the
Honduran Association of Banking Institutions (AHIBA); Freddy
Nasser of Grupo Terra; Luis Larach, President of the Chamber
of Commerce of Cortes; and Aline Flores, President of the
Chamber of Commerce of Tegucigalpa.
6. (C) PDAS Kelly repeated the points that he had made to
the guests at the previous night's dinner, emphasizing the
importance of the resignation of de facto leader Micheletti
in creating an environment in which other countries (outside
the ALBA group) would be willing to recognize Honduras
quickly following the inauguration of President-elect Lobo.
Bulnes expressed appreciation for PDAS Kelly's efforts to
find a solution to the crisis in Honduras. He said that he
had recently met with Micheletti, who had said that Congress
had ratified him and he would not step down. However, Bulnes
said that he thought that Micheletti's resignation was
possible under certain circumstances. PDAS Kelly's visit, he
said, was fundamental in this regard. Garcia said that it
was unclear what would constitute an acceptable transition.
Changing a few ministers for two weeks, for example, would
not mean much. Bennaton said that the business leaders
understand that U.S. policy toward Honduras must be seen in
the broader context of relations with Latin America as a
whole; what happened in Honduras set a bad example for the
region. On the positive side, he said, the crisis and the
successful elections have given people more of a sense of
pride about being Honduran.
7. (C) PDAS Kelly said that, while some maintain that
Micheletti's resignation would be a victory for Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez and his allies, the opposite is in fact
true. Micheletti's resignation would lead to widespread
recognition of the Honduran government, which is what Chavez
is trying to prevent. He said that, with the inauguration
three weeks away, this would have to happen right away. With
Zelaya's return no longer possible, Micheletti has achieved
his main goal, PDAS Kelly pointed out. What would he achieve
by staying until the last minute? Bulnes said that
Micheletti felt that he would lose everything if he stepped
down. However, he told PDAS Kelly that the group supported
Micheletti's resignation, since it represented the best hope
of a smooth transition for President Lobo. Atala said that
the issue of revocation of U.S. visas was not important for
anyone involved, a point strongly echoed by the rest of the
group
8. (C) The business leaders expressed serious concern about
the potential impact of the ongoing minimum wage negotiations
(reftel). Bulnes expressed concern that the issue could lead
to more violence and a resurgence of the resistance, which he
termed the "Chavista armed struggle." This would create a
bad start for the Lobo presidency. Flores said that it would
be far preferable for the minimum wage negotiation process to
be completed during Micheletti's tenure, rather than
President-elect Lobo having to take on this controversial
issue at the start of his presidency. Larach said that 47
percent of small enterprises are not paying the minimum wage
because they cannot afford to. There is no capacity in the
economy, he said, to absorb a further minimum wage increase.
Bulnes said that the political impact of the minimum wage
discussions is more important than the economic impact, given
the potential for political destabilization.
LLORENS