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ACTION AF-18
INFO OCT-01 EUR-25 ISO-00 IO-14 AID-20 COME-00 SPM-01
CIAE-00 INR-10 NSAE-00 RSC-01 DRC-01 EB-11 /102 W
--------------------- 092630
R 091400Z MAY 74
FM AMEMBASSY LAGOS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3955
INFO AMCONSUL IBADAN
AMCONSUL KADUNA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
UNCLAS LAGOS 4042
E.O. 11652: N/A
TAGS: SPONP, PINS, PINT, NI
SUBJ: CENSUS RESULTS RELEASED
SUMMARY: PRELIMINARY CENSUS FIGURES RELEASED MAY 8
GIVE TOTAL NIGERIAN POPULATION JUST UNDER 80 MILLION.
END SUMMARY
1. IN RADIO-TV ADDRESS TO NATION MAY 8, GENERAL GOWON
RELEASE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF 1973 CENSUS. THESE
INITIAL RESULTS SHOW NIGERIAN POPULATION OF 79.759 MILLION,
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE EVEN TOP RANGE OF UN ESTIMATES
PREVIOUSLY USED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
2. IN HIS ADDRESS, GOWON STRESSED PRELIMINARY NATURE
OF FIGURES AND REPORTED THAT NATIONAL CENSUS BOARD
WILL CONDUCT ELABORATE "POST-ENUMERATION TESTS, CHECKS,
AND SURVEYS" BEFORE FINAL TOTAL IS ACCEPTED. PENDING
COMPLETION OF THIS CONFIRMATRY PROCESS AND FINAL
APPROVAL BY FMG, PRELIMINARY RESULTW WILL NOT BE USED
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. GOWON STRESSED THAT FINAL
FIGURES COULD BE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER THAN PRELIMIARY
RESULTS DEPENDING A FINDINGS FROM POST-ENUMERATION CHECKS.
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3. POPULATION BREAKDOWN BY STATES GIVEN BY GOWON IS
AS FOLLOWS:
BENUE-PLATEAU 5.17
EAST-CENTRAL 8.06
KANO 10.90
KWARA 4.64
LAGOS 2.47
MID-WESTERN 3.24
NORTH-CENTRAL 6.79
NORTH-EASTERN 15.38
NORTH-WESTERN 8.50
RIVERS 2.23
SOUTH-EASTERN 3.46
WESTERN 8.92
4. COMMENT: STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWN REVEALS THAT MOST
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POPULATION FIGURES OCCURS IN NORTH,
WHOSE SIX STATES ARE CREDITED WITH 64.4PERCENT OF TOTAL
POPULATION (AS AGAINST 53.5 PERCENT IN 1963). WITHIN THIS GROUP,
FOUR NORTHERN MOST STATES ALONE HAVE JUST OVER MAJORITY
OF TOTAL RECORDED POPULATION (THEY WERE 42PERCENT AT LAST
CENSUS). NEW FIGURES SUGGESTED THAT NORTH WAS AREA MOST
SERIOUSLY UNDERCOUNTED DURING PREVIOUS ENUMERATIONS, AS
GAINS IN SEVERAL STATES ARE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT SINCE 1963
CENSUS.
5. IN CONTRAST, RECORDED POPULATION RISE IN SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STATES FOR LESS DRAMATIC, AND IN CASE OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN STATES ACTUALLY SHOW DECLINE
FROM 1963 FIGURES. FOR WESTERN, DROUP IS FROM 9.5 TO
JUST UNDER 9 MILLION, WHILE SOUTH-EASTERN STATE SLIPS
FROM 3.62 MILLION TO 3.46 MILLION. EAST-CENTRAL STATE
RECORDS SMALL RISE FROM 7.23 MILLION TO 8.06 MILLION,
BUT LOW INCREASE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA AS WELL AS
ABOVE TWO STATES MAY HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN OVERCOUNTING
DURING 1963 EXERCISE.
6 WE WILL PROVIDE FURTHER COMMENTS AS REACTIONS TO
CENSUS BEGINTO EMERGE.
REINHARDT
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