CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 WARSAW 00085 080737Z
21
ACTION EUR-25
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 IO-14 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-07 H-03 INR-10
L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-10 PA-04 RSC-01 PRS-01 SPC-03 SS-20
USIA-15 OMB-01 NIC-01 SAJ-01 SR-02 ORM-03 COME-00
TRSE-00 DRC-01 /126 W
--------------------- 039564
R 080456Z JAN 74
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7164
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
USMISSION BERLIN
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
AMEMBASSY SOFIA
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USNATO 569
AMCONSUL POZNAN
C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 0085
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PFOR, PL, US
SUBJECT: US-POLISH RELATIONS: YEAR-END ASSESSMENT:
FOREIGN RELATIONS
: WARSAW 0070
1. AS IT DID IN 1973, THE GOP WILL ENGAGE IN INTENSIVE
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IN 1974, PARTICULARLY IN ATTEMPTING
TO EXPLOIT THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR POLAND RESULTING FROM
EAST-WEST DETENTE. GENERALLY IN ITS FOREIGN POLICY,
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ITS ACTIONS AS A MEMBER OF THE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 WARSAW 00085 080737Z
WARSAW PACT, POLAND CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MOSCOW ON ALL MAJOR INTERNATIONAL ISSUES.
2. 1974 WILL BE AN ACTIVE YEAR OF PERSONAL DIPLOMACY
FOR GIEREK. AN OFFICIAL VISIT TO WEST GERMANY HAS BEEN
ANNOUNCED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, AND WE HAVE
BEEN TOLD BY THE GERMAN EMBASSY THAT IT COULD BE AS
EARLY AS MARCH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT GIEREK'S
FIRST OFFICIAL VISIT TO ROMANIA MAY BE IN THE OFFING.
AND HE COULD CROWN HIS DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IN 1974 WITH
A VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES.
3. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 1974, POLISH-FRG RELATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE HEAVY ATTENTION. AN EXCHANGE OF
VISITS BETWEEN FRG FOREIGN MINISTER SCHEEL AND POLISH
FOREIGN MINISTER OLSZOWSKI AT THE END OF 1973 PRODUCED
SOME PROGRESS IN THE TWO BASIC OUTSTANDING ISSUES IN
POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS: LARGE-SCALE, LONG-TERM FRG
CREDITS FOR POLAND AND THE REPATRIATION OF ETHNIC
GERMANS TO THE FRG. A GENERAL AGREEMENT IS SHAPING UP
WHICH WOULD PERMIT 150,000 ETHNIC GERMANS TO EMIGRATE
FROM POLAND OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS IN EXCHANGE FOR
SUBSIDIZED GERMAN CREDITS TO THE POLES OF 1-1.5 BILLION
DM. JOINT WORKING GROUPS ARE TO NEGOTIATE ON THESE
QUESTION BEGINNING IN JANUARY 1974 AND WILL
ALSO DISCUSS THE QUESTION OF FRG PENSIONS FOR ETHNIC
GERMANS RESIDING IN POLAND.
4. WE EXPECT THE GOP TO CONTINUE TO GIVE HEAVY
ATTENTION TO BILATERAL, AS OPPOSED TO MULTILATERAL,
INDUSTRIAL AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH ITS CEMA
PARTNERS. HUNGARY, THE GDR, AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN OBJECTS OF POLISH ATTENTION IN
THIS AREA.
5. IN BOTH CSCE AND MBFR, POLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAITHFUL SUPPORT FOR MOSCOW'S POSITIONS AND
TO SURFACE NO INITIATIVES OF ITS OWN.
DAVIES
#0085
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 WARSAW 00085 080737Z
NNN
CONFIDENTIAL
NNN