1. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, BEING REPORTED SEPTEL, ARE CAUSING
POTENTIALLY SERIOUS GRUMBLING IN GHANA. SITUATION OF SCARCITY,
RISING PRICES AND GROWING UNEMPLOYMENT IS WIDELY ASCRIBED BY
THOSE ONCE ACTIVE IN POLITICS AND (SO WE ARE TOLD) BY MAN IN THE
STREET TO INCOMPETENCE AND MISMANAGEMENT BY NRC. SAMPLINGS
OVER LAST FEW WEEKS DISPLAY BOTH ANNOYANCE ON PART OF THOSE
PRESUMED TO BE KNOWLEDGEABLE AND EFFORTS BY SOME ELEMENTS IN
NRC TO DAMPEN CRITICISM, ESPECIALLY WITHIN MILITARY, WHICH
CONSIDERED ONLY SOURCE OF SERIOUS THREAT TO PRESENT NRC
LEADERSHIP.
2. ON LATTER, WE HAVE LEARNED THAT GENERAL OKAI, CHIEF OF
DEFENSE STAFF AND MEMBER OF THE NRC, HAS CONVENED SEVERAL
MEETINGS WITH FIELD GRADE OFFICERS IN MILITARY TO WHICH HE
HAS BROUGHT IN EXPERTS FROM OUTSIDE MILITARY AND OUTSIDE GOVERN-
MENT TO EXPLAIN CURRENT SITUATION AND STEPS NRC IS TAKING AND
MIGHT TAKE TO MEET IT. THERE IS ADMISSION THAT CONDITIONS ARE
DIFFICULT, THAT FOREIGN EXCHANGE WAS MISHANDLED LAST YEAR AND
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THAT PROSPECTS ARE NOT BRIGHT FOR EARLY RECOVERY. ON THE
OTHER HAND, BLAME IS BASICALLY PUT ON FACTORS OUTSIDE CONTROL
OF NRC: INCREASING COST OF OIL, DECREASING RETURN FROM COCOA,
AND "ECONOMIC SABOTAGE" FROM HOARDERS AND SMUGGLERS.
3. POLITICAL FIGURES, ALL OUT OF ACTION SINCE NRC REVOLUTION
IN 1972 AND SOME OUT SINCE NRC TAKE OVER IN 1966, AND WHO
THEREFORE HAVE AN AX TO GRIND, ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
VOCAL IN THEIR CRITICISM. TO CITE ONE CASE, FORMER FOREIGN
MINISTER ALEX QUAISON-SACKEY CLAIMS ECONOMIC SITUATION AS
HE SEES IT BOTH AS ACCRA LAWYER AND WINNEBA GENTLEMAN
IS WORSE THAN EITHER THAT PRECEDING NKRUMAH'S FALL IN
1966 OR BUSIA'S IN 1972, ESPECIALLY AS THERE IS NO OUTSIDE POWER
INTERESTED IN BAILING GHANA OUT. HE DESCRIBES CURRENT STATE AS
"BEGINNING OF THE END" BUT STRESSES "WE CAN DO NOTHING AS THEY
HAVE THE GUNS". HE THINKS ACTION WILL COME SOONER OR LATER FROM
ARMY ITSELF, BUT FEARS THAT IT MAY COME FROM LOWER RANKS
WITH "RADICAL" SOLUTIONS.
4. WITH INCREASING FREQUENCY WE HEAR COMMENTS THAT MILITARY
HAS STAYED TOO LONG AND THAT POLITICALLY INSENSITIVE (AND
INCOMPETENT) COLONELS AND GENERALS HAVE PROVEN INCAPABLE OF
PROVIDING DIRECTION AND COORDINATION AMONG ELEMENTS OF
BUREAUCRACY AND OF ESTABLISHING LINK BETWEEN PEOPLE AND
GOVERNMENT THAT MIGHT BE PROVIDED BY EXPERIENCED POLITICIANS.
HENCE, THERE IS NOSTALGIC LOOK AT NLC WHICH EARLY ON INCLUDED
NON-MILITARY IN ADVISORY CAPACITY AND IN DECISION MAKING
APPARATUS. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY, MUCH OF THIS COMES FROM THOSE
WHO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH BUSIA OR WHO WERE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE POLITICAL ASSOCIATION WITH THE MILITARY IN NLC PERIOD.
FOR EXAMPLE, ANOTHER FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER, WILLIE OFORI
ATTA, WHILE ADMITTING THERE WERE SOME BAD APPLES IN THE BUSIA
BARREL, CLAIMS THAT, GIVEN MORE TIME, BUSIA'S MINISTRY WOULD
HAVE WORKED OUT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (ALSO CREATED LARGELY BY A
FALL IN COCOA PRICES) AND WOULD HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE LIAISON
WITH POPULATION IN GENERAL IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN
MEMBERS' DESIRE FOR RE-ELECTION.
5. BUSINESS PEOPLE ARE CRITICAL OF SHORTAGE WHETHER THEY ARE
FROM AMONG THE LIMITED NUMBER OF GHANAIANS WHO HAVE ENTERED
MANUFACTURING AND WHO HAVE LOST ACCESS TO RAW MATERIALS AND
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SPARE PARTS OR WHETHER THEY ARE FROM THE LARGER GROUP OF
TRADERS WHOSE SOURCES OF IMPORTED GOODS ARE DISAPPEARING.
RETIRED CIVIL SERVANTS, WHO LOOK BACK TO RELATIVELY STRONG
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WHICH PRECEDED NKRUMAH'S BURST OF
SPENDING, CLAIM THEIR SUCCESSORS IN OFFICE (AND THE
LEADERSHIP DIRECTING THEM) ARE NOT COMPETENT TO MANAGE
ECONOMY. IT IS LESS PRACTICAL FOR US TO GAIN VIEWS FROM THE
"COMMON MAN", BUT IF COMPLAINTS OF EMBASSY LOCALS AND
HOUSEHOLD STAFF ARE VALID, THEN ANNOYANCE AND CONCERN OVER
RISING PRICES OF NON-IMPORTED STAPLES IS GREAT.
6. NONE OF THIS IS TO SUGGEST THAT WE EXPECT AN EARLY CHANGE
OF GOVERNMENT OR EVEN A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN MEMBERSHIP OF NRC.
WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN, WE WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO RECEIVE
VERY MUCH ADVANCE NOTICE OF IT AS IT WOULD NO DOUBT BE IN
THE NATURE OF A PALACE COUP. BUT IT DOES SEEM FAIR TO ASSERT
THAT POPULAR CONFIDENCE IN THE NRC LEADERSHIP IS AT PRESENT
AT A LOW EBB, AND DECLINING AND, THAT SHORT OF A SUDDEN
SWITCH IN THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - MAINLY LOWER PETROLEUM
PRICES AND HIGHER COCOA PRICES, NOT AT PRESENT FORESEEN
-- IS NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE.
HANSON
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