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PAGE 01 CAPE T 00237 091524Z
47
ACTION AF-06
INFO OCT-01 EUR-12 IO-11 ISO-00 PM-04 NSC-05 SP-02 SS-15
CIAE-00 DODE-00 INR-07 NSAE-00 PA-02 USIA-15 PRS-01
/081 W
--------------------- 057399
R 091400Z MAR 76
FM AMEMBASSY CAPE TOWN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4999
INFO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY LAGOS
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
US MISSION USUN NEW YORK 1081
UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 0237
E.O.11652:N/A
TAGS: AO,UR,PINS,CU,SF
SUBJ: CHANCE OF CLASH IN ANGOLA APPEARS SMALL AT PRESENT
CAPE TIMES MARCH 9 FEATURED FOLLOWING DESCRIPTION OF
MILITARY SITUATION IN ANGOLA. IT IS REPORTEDLY BASED ON INTERVIEW
OF SENIOR SAG OFFICIALS BY JOHANNESBURG CORRESPONDENT OF REUTERS
AND SUBSEQUENTLY CLEARED FOR RELEASE BY SAG.
'CUTBACK IN RED ARMS FOR ANGOLA'
'PRETORIA- THE SOVIET UNION APPERS TO BE RAPIDLY CUTTING BACK
ITS SUPPLY OF SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS TO ANGOLA, INFORMED SOURCES
HERE SAID YESTERDAY.
'THEY SAID THERE HAD BEEN A MARKED REDUCTION IN RECENT
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WEEKS OF SHIPMENTS OF EQUIPMENT SUCH AS TANKS AND ROCKETS
ARRIVING IN LUANDA, THE ANGOLAN CAPITAL.
'AND SO FAR THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE OF A SOVIET CUBAN
BUILD-UP AGAINST RHODESIA.
'THE SOURCES ALSO DISCLOSED THAT CUBAN TROOPS WERE
NOT AS CLOSE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO SOUTH AFRICAN
POSITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH OF ANGOLA.
'THEY SAID BLACK TROOPS OF THE MPLA GOVERNMENT WERE
HOLDING A LINE ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE PORT OF MOCAMEDES,
EASTWARD THROUGH SA DA BANDEIRA,SERPA PINTO, QUITO
CUANAVALE AND CANGAMBA.
'THIS IS ABOUT 200 KM AT ITS CLOSET POINT FROM THE
SOUTH AFRICAN FORCES GUARDING HYDRO-ELECTRIC INSTALLATIONS
AND REFUGEE CAMPS AT PEREIRA D'ECA, CALUEQUE AND RUACANA.
'BUT THE SOURCES SAID CUBAN TROOPS WHO SPEAR-
HEADED THE MPLA'S SOUTHWARD DRIVE IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
WERE HOLDING BACK AT A LINE MUCH FARTHER NORTH,MARKED BY
THE TOWNS OF BENGUELA, NOVA LISBOA(HUAMBO) SILVA
PORTO AND LUSO. THIS IS MORE THAN 500 KM FROM THE SOUTH
AFRICAN DEFENCES.
'THE REASON FOR THIS HOLD-BACK IS NOT KNOWN. BUT,
TOGETHER WITH THE DWINDLING SUPPLIES OF SOPHISTICATED
SOVIET WEAPONS, IT APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT THE MPLA AND
CUBANS ARE NOT SEEKING A MAJOR SHOWDOWN AT THIS STAGE
WITH THE SOUTH AFRICANS.
'OTHER SOVIET MILITARY SUPPLIES,INCLUDING RIFLES AND TRANSPORT,
WERE CONTINUING, PRESUMABLY DESTINED TO MAINTAIN MPLA SUPERIORITY
IN THE GUERILLA WAR BEING WAGED BY THE MPLA'S MAJOR OPPONENT,
UNITA.
' THE SOURCES SAID THESE WEAPONS, AND TEH FORWARD
POSITION OF THE BLACK MPLA SOLDIERS, COULD ALSO BE INTENDED
TO STRENGTHEN SWAPO, THE SOUTH WEST AFRICA
PEOPLE'S ORGANIZATION, IN ITS CAMPAIGN TO FORCE AND END
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TO SOUTH AFRICA'S DISPUTED RULE OF SOUTH WEST AFRICA.
' AT THE MOMENT, AND IN SPITE OF UNCONFIRMED REPORTS
OF CUBAN TROOPS AND SOVIET TANKS BEING LANDED IN MOZAMBIQUE,
THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE SOVIET-BACKED FORCES WERE
ACTIVELY TURNING THEIR ATTENTION FROM ANGOLA TO ITS
NEIGHBOUR,RHODESIA,THE SOURCES SAID.
'WAITING:
'POLITICAL OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THE SOVIET UNION
AND CUBA ARE PREPARED TO WAIT AT LEAST UNTIL IT IS CLEAR
WHETHER THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT IN
RHODESIA BEFORE CONSIDERING MILITARY INVOLVEMENT THERE.
' IN ANGOLA, THE CUBAN TROOPS WERE BEING REPLACED ON
A REGULAR DUTY-TOUR BASIS, THE SOURCES SAID. THEY
STILL NUMBERED BETWEEN 9,000 AND 12,000 AND WERE NOT BEING
REINFORCED.
' NONE OF THEM WERE DEPLOYED SOUTH OF THE BENGUELA
LINE BUT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE BLACK MPLA FORCES WERE MORE
ACTIVE. THEY SEEMED INTENT ON CONSOLIDATING THEIR
EASTWARD LINE FROM SA DA BANDEIRA.
'THE SOURCES SAID THAT TO SECURE THIS LINE,THE
MPLA WOULD HAVE TO DEPLOY FORCES UP TO 80 KM SOUTH
OF IT.'
BOWDLER
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