1. FOLLOWING IS BEST CURRENT INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO EMBASSY
ON POINTS OF INQUIRY CONTAINED BECKER-HINSON TELECON OF
4/1/76.
2. LEGAL STATUS AND ACTIVITIES OF COMMUNIST PARTY:
PANAMANIAN COMMUNIST PARTY (PARTIDO DEL PUEBLO, PDP, MOSCOW-
LINE) IS OFFICIALLY ILLEGAL UNDER LAW BANNING ORGANIZED
POLITICAL PARTY ACTIVITY ISSUED AFTER OCTOBER 1968 COUP WHICH
INSTALLED TORRIJOS GOVERNMENT AND STILL IN FORCE. PRIOR TO
OCTOBER 1968 IT OPERATED LEGALLY AS DID OTHER PARTIES. IN
1968, ITS TOP LEADERSHIP WAS DRIVEN INTO EXILE, AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE PARTY WENT UNDERGROUND AND REMAINED
INACTIVE UNTIL 1970. BEGINNING IN THAT YEAR THE GOVERN-
MENT PRESSURE BEGAN EASING OFF, AND THE PARTY BEGAN TO
OPERATE IN A SEMI-CLANDESTINE MANNER. BY 1973 SOME OF ITS
EXILED LEADERS WERE PERMITTED TO RETURN. THE CONDITIONS
UNDER WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED BACK ESSENTIALLY ARE
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THAT THEY REFRAIN FROM SUBVERSIVE ACTIVITY. IN ADDI-
TION, THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT BLOCKED INDIVIDUAL PARTICIPATION BY
SOME MEMBERS OF THE PARTY IN IMPLEMENTING CERTAIN OF GOV-
ERNMENT'S REFORM PROGRAMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AGRI-
CULTURE SECTOR AND FOR A TIME IN EDUCATION. RECENTLY
THE MINISTERS OF EDUCATION AND AGRICULTURE HAVE
REPLACED MANY KNOWN LEFTISTS, INCLUDING PARTY MEMBERS AND
OTHERS, WHO WERE WORKING ON REFORM PROGRAMS WITH MODERATES.
3. IN ESSENCE, A MODUS VIVENDI EXISTS BETWEEN THE GOP
AND THE PDP UNDER WHICH THE LATTER DOES NOT CONDUCT
ACTIVE OPPOSITION TO THE GOP WHICH IN TURN HAS CEASED
ACTIVE REPRESSION OF THE PDP AND HAS GIVEN IT TACIT
CONSENT TO OPERATE. THE PARTY HAS A SEMI-PUBLIC OFFICE
IN PANAMA CITY AND HAS COOPERATED IN MOBILIZING ORGANI-
ZATIONS (CAMPESINOS, LABOR UNIONS, STUDENTS) WHICH IT
CAN INFLUENCE FOR PUBLIC SHOWS OF SUPPORT TO THE
GOVERNMENT AS NECESSARY. OCCASIONALLY THE PDP TAKES
ISSUES WITH GOP ON CERTAIN ISSUES. THE GOP SECURITY
FORCES IN TURN KEEP THE PARTY AND ITS LEADERSHIP UNDER
CLOSE OBSERVATION. EMBASSY ASSESSMENT IS THAT WHILE
PDP IS BY NO MEANS UNDER GOP CONTROL, THE GOVERNMENT
THROUGH ITS PENETRATION OF PDP, ITS ABILITY TO RETURN
PDP LEADERS TO EXILE, AND REPRESS MEMBERS CAN KEEP
PARTY FROM BECOMING A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR IT.
WE ESTIMATE PDP NOW COUNTS ABOUT 600 MEMBERS SUBJECT
TO PARTY DISCIPLINE, WITH AN ESTIMATED 2,000-
3,000 SYMPATHIZERS. NONE OF THOSE KNOWN TO BE SUBJECT
TO PARTY DISCIPLINE CURRENTLY HOLDS A MAJOR GOVERNMENT
POSITION, ALTHOUGH SOME INDIVIDUALS KNOWN OR SUSPECTED
TO BE LINE PDP MEMBERS ARE IN POSITIONS OF INFLUENCE IN
QUASI-PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS CLOSE TO GOVERNMENT, AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME GOP OFFICIALS KNOWN AS LEFTISTS
MAY BE CLANDESTINE PDP MEMBERS.
4. IN ADDITION TO THE PDP, A NUMBER OF MINOR SPLINTER
ORGANIZATIONS EXIST PRIMARILY IN THE UNIVERSITY, THEIR
MEMBERSHIP RANGING FROM 15 TO 60 OR 70. SOME OF
THSES ARE WHAT MIGHT BE CALLED PDP SYMPATHIZERS, BUT
MOST OF THEM STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH THE PDP. SOME,
SUCH AS THE SOXIALIST REVOLUTIONARY FRACTION (FSR)
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CLAIM TO BE MARXIST, BUT THEY TOTALLY REJECT PDP DIS-
CIPLINE. THESE GROUPS ARE ALSO CRITICAL OF THE GOVERN-
MENT.
5. THE PANAMANIAN STUDENT FEDERATION (FEP), PANAMA'S
LARGEST UNIVERSITY STUDENTGROUP IS GENERALLY PRO-GOP
AND MODERATE (AS LEFTIST STUDENTS GO). SOME OF ITS
LEADERS WERE FORMERLY AFFILIATED WITH THE PDP BUT WERE
EXPELLED IN 1974. IN THE FEP AND AMONG THE OTHER STUDENT
GROUPS ARE A NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS ONE COULD CALL IN-
TELLECTUAL LEFTISTS BUT WHO HAVE NO PARTY TIES. THEY
ARE POPULARLY CALLED "COMMUNISTS" BY PERSONS ON THE
POLITICAL RIGHT, THUS COMPLICATING THE PICTURE FOR
OUTSIDERS. SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE "LEFTISTS" IN
THEIR STUDENT DAYS HOLD SENIOR POSITIONS IN THE GOVERN-
MENT. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE MELLOWED THEIR VIEWS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF TIME AND AS THEY HAVE ASSUMED RESPONSIBILITIES
IN GOVERNMENT AND SOCIETY.
6. STATUS OF OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES: AS NOTED ABOVE,
ALL ORGANIZED POLITICAL PARTY ACTIVITY IS NOMINALLY
ILLEGAL IN PANAMA AT PRESENT. ON THE LEFT, A NUMBER
OF FACTIONS OR GROUPS SOMETIMES ASSUME THE NAME OF "PARTY"
BUT DO NOT OPERATE AS THIS TERM IS NORMALLY UNDERSTOOD.
ELSEWHERE ON THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM, CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS
HAVE MAINTAINED A SHADOWY EXISTENCE; WHILE PARTY AC-
TIVITY IS NOMINALLY ILLEGAL, ONE MEMBER OF THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY OF CORREGIMIENTO REPRESENTATIVES PUBLICLY
IDENTIFIED HIMSELF AS A CHRISTIAN DEMOCRAT AND SAID IN
AN ASSEMBLY SPEECH THAT HE SPOKE ON BEHALF OF CHRISTIAN
DEMOCRACY IN PANAMA (H.R. LUIS VECES, PANAMA PROVINCE,
AT SPECIAL SESSION IN DAVID IN JULY 1975). ALSO,
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS HAVE MAINTAINED AFFILIATION WITH
INTERNATIONAL CHRISTIAN DEMOCRACY AND SEND REPRESENTATIVES
TO INTERNATIONAL PARTY CONCLAVES; ON ONE OCCASION (IN
LATE 1975), PANAMA CITY PRESS PRINTED A STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE PARTY SUPPORTING PANAMA'S POSITION IN TREATY
NEGOTIATIONS. PARTY DOES NOT, HOWEVER, HAVE KNOWN
OFFICES OR A KNOWN PUBLIC OR MASS ORGANIZATION.
7. OTHER PRE-1968 PARTIES ARE GENERALLY INACTIVE, FOR
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A VARIETY OF REASONS. UNLIKE COMMUNISTS AND, TO LESSER
EXTENT, CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, THESE PARTIES WERE EITHER
VEHICLES FOR SHIFTING COALITIONS OF INTEREST GROUPS
(SOMEWHAT ALONG LINES OF US PARTY MODEL) WITHOUT
DISTINCT AND RIGOROUS IDEOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK, OR WERE
EXCLUSIVELY VEHICLES FOR A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL (I.E.,
"PANAMENISTA" PARTY WHICH WAS MASS VEHICLE FOR OUSTED
PRESIDENT ARNULFO ARIAS). MANY INDIVIDUAL ARNULFISTAS
REMAIN IN PANAMA, AND SOME HAVE JOINED THE PRESENT
GOVERNMENT; BUT THIS GROUP IS INACTIVE AS PARTY SINCE
ITS LEADER AND REASON FOR EXISTENCE IS IN EXILE AND
UNLIKELY TO RETURN--EVEN BRIEF FLURRY DURING JANUARY
1976 SURROUNDINGS ARIAS' STATED INTENTION TO RETURN
FAILED TO STIR THIS GROUP INTO ORGANIZED LIFE AS A
POLITICAL PARTY. UNDIVIDUAL LEADERS ASSOCIATED WITH
OTHER PRE11968 PARTIES REMAIN IN CONTACT WITH EACH
OTHER, AND SOMETIMES SPEAK OF THEMSELVES AS CONTINUING
TO BE A PARTY, BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF LEGAL SANCTION FOR
THEIR OPERATIONS, ANY VIABLE IDEOLOGY AND AND DE-
FINABLE POINT AT WHICH ORGANIZED PARTY AVTIVITY COULD
MANIFEST ITSELF, THEY ARE NOT CREDIBLY NAMABLE AS
PARTIES. THEY MAINTAIN NO OFFICES AND HAVE NO
RECOGNIZABLE ROLE AS ORGANIZATIONS IN CURRENT PANA-
MANIAN POLITICS.
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63
ACTION ARA-10
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-04 H-02 INR-07 L-03
NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 SAB-01 CU-02
SIL-01 LAB-04 OMB-01 TRSE-00 EB-07 COME-00 USIE-00
INRE-00 NSCE-00 SSO-00 /067 W
--------------------- 083424
O 062210Z APR 76
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7310
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8. CURRENT STATUS OF JANUARY GOP-BUSINESS CONFRONTATION:
THOSE EXILED TO GUAYAQUIL, ECUADOR, IN JANUARY HAVE MOVED
AROUND SOMEWHAT RECENTLY; ACCORDING TO OUR LATEST IN-
FORMATION, A NUMBER ARE IN THE US, TWO ARE IN VENEZUELA,
EXILED ULTRA-LEFTIST MIGUEL BERNAL IS IN MEXICO AND
OTHERS ARE ELSEWHERE. PUBLIC CONSCIOUSNESS THAT THEY
ARE STILL GONE REMAINS HIGH; LEFTIST STUDENT SIGNS
AROUND PANAMA CITY CONTINUE TO CALL FOR RETURN OF
BERNAL AND EXILED OWNER OF "RADIO IMPACTO", ALBERTO
QUIROS GUARDIA, AND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE HAS CALLED FOR
THE RETURN OF BUSINESS LEADERS (INCLUDING EXILED
PRESIDENT-ELECT OF THE CHAMBER) IN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER
COLUMN, BUT BLIZZARD OF PROTESTS LEAFLETS WHICH
CHARACTERIZED JANUARY CONFRONTATION HAS SUBSIDED.
RUMORS CONTINUE TO ABOUND OF IMMINENT RETURN OF SOME
OR ALL OF THESE EXILES, BUT EMBASSY HAS NO FIRM IN-DICATION
OF ANY CHANGE IN THEIR STATUS AT THIS TIME.
9.SERIES OF GOP-BUSINESS CONVERSATIONS REPORTED PANAMA
6888 WAS APPARENTLY WELL RECEIVED, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN
NO SPECTACULAR DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS DIALOG SINCE. GOP
LEADERS HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE CONSIDERABLE HIGH-LEVEL
ATTENTION TO CHIRIQUI PROVINCE, HOLDING FREQUENT TALKS
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WITH LEADERS THERE. DAVID FAIR WAS MARKED BY SUBSTANTIAL
PARTICIPATION FROM CATTLEMEN'S ASSOCIATION, INCLUDING
CATTLE BELONGING TO ONE OF ITS EXILED LEADERS; CATTLE-
MEN TOLD EMBASSY OFFICER THAT THEY REGARDED THEIR PAR-
TICIPATION AS SIGNAL TO GOP OF WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE,
AND ARE WAITING TO SEE WHAT GOP WILL DO IN RESPONSE.
MAJOR SUBSTANTIVE COMPLAINT OF RICE GROWERS, THAT THEY
HAD NOT BEEN PAID BY GOVERNMENT MARKETING INSTITUTE
FOR THEIR 1975 CROP, HAVE BEEN ANSWERED BY PAYMENTS.
EDUCATION REFORM, A TARGET OF MUCH CRITICISM, APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN MODERATED THROUGH SERIES OF PERSONNEL
CHANGES IN MINISTRY OF EDUCATION STAFF WHICH HAVE
DIMINISHED INFLUENCE OF KNOWN LEFTISTS IN THIS PROGRAM.
IN GENERAL, THERE HAS BEEN NO SPECTACULAR CHANGE IN
SITUATION--GOP CONTINUES TO SAY IT WISHES TO REPAIR
ITS LINKS WITH BUSINESS, WHILE PRIVATE SECTOR CONTINUES
TO BE WARY AND TO AWAIT MORE CONCRETE SIGNALS OF GOP
INTENTIONS. THE APPOINTMENT LAST WEEK OF MODERATES
IN MINISTRIES OF HOUSING AND GOVERNMENT AND JUSTICE
SHOULD HELP BOOST BUSINESS CONFIDENCE.
10. CURRENT STATUS OF FOREIGN COMMUNIST, PARTICULARLY
CUBAN, ACTIVITIES: CUBAN EMBASSY IN PANAMA NOW HAS A
STAFF OF 30-40 CUBAN NATIONALS, MAKING IT LARGEST AFTER
THAT OF UNITED STATES. SOME OF THESE ARE KNOWN TO BE
INTELLIGENCE PERSONNEL. INFORMATION ON CUBAN NATIONALS
(OTHER THAN EXPATRIATES FROM CASTRO REGIME) IN PANAMA
IS SKETCHY IN THE EXTREME, BUT OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT THEY MAY TOTAL AROUND 100, CONCENTRATED IN PANAMA
CITY AND COLON (THESE WOULD INCLUDE, INTER ALIA,
JOURNALISTS, TECHNICIANS, AIRLINE PERSONNEL, PURCHASERS
AT COLON FREE ZONE,ETC.). ACCORDING TO RUMORS CIR-
CULATING IN PANAMA AND CANAL ZONE THERE ARE NOW 2,000
CUBANS IN PANAMA--ONE VERSION HAS AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE IN ORGANIZED MILITARY UNITS; ANOTHER VERSION IS
THAT THEY LANDED AT LAS MINAS BEACH. THE CONSIDERED
VIEW OF THE COUNTRY TEAM IS THAT THERE IS NO PRACTICAL
POSSIBILITY THAT SUCH A NUMBER OF CUBANS COULD BE IN
THE COUNTRY. ALSO, CUBAN-PANAMANIAN RELATIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT STRAINED AT PRESENT AS PANAMA CONTINUES TO
SEEK MORE INFORMATION ON RECENT CASE OF AN INDIVIDUAL
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WHO, AFTER ROBBING A PANAMA CITY BANK IN 1973 SOUGH
AND RECEIVED HAVEN IN CUBA, BUT WHO WAS RECENTLY SHOT
AND KILLED BY NATIONAL GUARD ATTEMPTING TO CROSS
BORDER INTO COSTA RICA AFTER ROBBING A BANK IN PUERTO
ARMUELLES.
11. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF YOGOSLAV TECHNICIANS IN
PANAMA IN CONNECTION WITH YUGOSLAV COMPANY PARTICIPAT-
ING IN CONSTRUCTION OF ALMOST COMPLETED BAYANO HYDRO-
ELECTRIC PROJECT. THEY ARE, HOWEVER, ISOLATED IN THE
BAYANO AREA AND HAVE NOT BEEN KNOWN TO ENGAGE IN
POLITICAL ACTIVITIES OR CONTRACTS. FOR INFORMATION AS
TO DIPLOMATIC AND CULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN PANAMA BY
OTHER COMMUNIST COUNTRIES, SEE PANAMA A-21. EMBASSY
HAS NO INDICATION THAT ACTIVITIES BY ANY OF THESE
OTHER COMMUNIST GOVERNMENTS GO SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THAT
CHARACTERISTIC OF ANY COUNTRY IN WHICH THEY ARE REP-
RESENTED.
12. INCIDENTS INVOLVING JURISDICTIONAL CONFLICT WITH
CANAL ZONE: DEPT IS AWARE OF SITUATIONS DURING DECEMBER-
JANUARY RELATING TO SHOOTING AT VENADO BEACH IN CANAL
ZONE AND TO NATIONAL GUARD ACTIVITIES ALONG BORDER
WITH PANAMA CITY. ON MARCH 6, INCIDENT OCCURRED
ALONG PANAMA CITY-CANAL ZONE BORDER ON 4TH OF JULY
AVENUE; PANAMANIAN STUDENT ALLEGEDLY HAD BEEN PAINTING
AND DEFACING A CAR WITH CANAL ZONE LICENSE PLATES, WAS
DETAINED BY CANAL ZONE POLICE, A CROWD GATHERED AND A
PASSING NATIONAL GUARD VEHICLE STOPPED TO SEE WHAT WAS
WRONG. NATIONAL GUARD DEMANDED CUSTODY OF SUSPECT AND,
TO AVOID PROVOKING AN INCIDENT, CANAL ZONE POLICE
COMPLIED. EMBASSY UNDERSTANDS THIS INCIDENT WAS
REPORTED TO WASHINGTON ON THE SAME DAY AS IT OCCURED.
HOWEVER, AS DEPT AWARE, BORDER BETWEEN CANAL ZONE AND
PANAMA CITY ALONG THIS STREET IS DRAWN IN SUCH WAY
THAT ROADWAY IS IN CANAL ZONE WHILE SIDEWALK IS IN
PANAMA, WITH BORDER AT CURB LINE--THIS ANOMALOUS
SITUATION HAS GIVEN RISE TO MANY JURISDICTIONAL ODDITIES
IN PAST. PANCANAL HAS NOW INFORMED US THAT FURTHER
INVESTIGATION OF MARCH 6 INCIDENT HAS DISCLOSED THAT
SUSPECT ACCUSED OF VANDALIZING CAR WAS, IN FACT,
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STANDING ON SIDEWALK, I.E, WITHIN PANAMANIAN JURIS-
DICTION, AT TIME OF OCCURENCE. THUS, NATIONAL GUARD
DEMAND FOR CUSTODY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LEGALLY PROPER
AND JUSTIFIED, AS CANAL ZONE POLICE HAS NO LEGAL JURIS-
DICTION AT POINT WHERE SUSPECT WAS STANDING, AND THIS
INCIDENT PROVES NOT TO HAVE BEEN A JURISDICTIONAL
VIOLATION BY PANAMA AT ALL. PANCANAL INFORMS US THAT
NO FURTHER JURISDICTIONAL INCIDENTS OR ALLEGATIONS OF
NATIONAL GUARD SEEKING TO EXERCISE JURISDICTION IN
CANAL ZONE, HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
JORDEN
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